Introduction
The August 2022 edition of the BMKG Bulletin contains information related to the forecast of rainfall for the coming three months (September, October and November 2022)
Summary
Rain forecasts for the next 3 (three) months, namely the period from September to November 2022, are shown in the below overview. A total of 73.4% of Seasonal Zones in the territory of Indonesia are currently observed to have entered the dry season. Currently, the phenomenon of Weak La Nina, Negative IOD and warm Sea Surface Temperatures around Indonesia persist and is predicted to continue at least until the third quarter of 2022. This climate anomaly has an impact on increasing rainfall during the dry season period. In the overview below you can see already a significant increase in rainfall being predicted in October and November, with most of the yellow and red colored areas, being replaced by green areas.
This above normal rainfall during the dry season will affect the productivity of crops and distillation yields of essential oils that benefit from sustained periods of dry weather.
BMKG predicts the La Nina phenomenon will gradually become Neutral in the period December 2022 to February 2023. Most other climate service centers forecasting moderate to neutral La Nia conditions and will take place in December 2022 to February 2023. However, by then Indonesia would be in the middle of raining season that typically lasts from December to March/ April.Forecast August - October 2022
The weather forecast from BMKG, the Indonesian institute for meteorology for the coming three months, September to November is as follows:
Curah Hujan Bulanan = Monthly Rainfall / Rendah = Low/ Menengah = Medium/ Tinggi = High
Sangat Tinggi = Very High
From September to November 2022, the territory of Indonesia
generally forecasted to experience moderate to high rainfall categories.
In September 2022, a total of 6.44% of Indonesia's territory is predicted to experience low rainfall category (0 – 100 mm/month), 71.54% is predicted to be medium (100 – 300 mm/month), and 22.02% is predicted to experience high rainfall category up to very high (>300 mm/month).
In October 2022, 18.21% of the territory Indonesia is predicted to experience a low category of rainfall, 68.22% is predicted medium, and 13.57% predicted high to very high.
While in the month November 2022, 0.17% of Indonesia's territory is predicted to experience rainfall in the low category, 48.53% are predicted to fall into the medium, and 51.30% are predicted to fall into the high to very high category.
Meanwhile, in October 2022, a total of 6.78% regions of Indonesia are predicted to experience below-normal rainfall, 20.57% are predicted to have Normal rainfall, and 72.65% are predicted to have Above Normal rainfall.
Source: https://www.bmkg.go.id/iklim/buletin-iklim.bmkg